ASML Earnings: Foundation of Chipmaking Reports as Semiconductors Swoon

ASML Holding (ASML) will report earnings in Wednesday’s premarket session against a backdrop of widespread losses for its semiconductor sector cohorts.

The Dutch company, which makes various advanced machines used to manufacture microchips, saw a-3.9% drop yesterday while the broader VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell -4.15%. The sector saw particular pain concentrated among the memory chipmakers with SanDisk (SNDK, -12.62%), Western Digital (WDC, -4.64%), and Seagate Technology (STX, -5.45%) among the S&P 500’s worst decliners.

Three things to know about ASML heading into earnings:

Outlook: Street estimates for ASML’s earnings come in at $7.98 per share against last year’s figure of $4.55 (+75.3%), while projections for revenue are at $10.28B vs. $8.73B last year (+17.8%), according to Zacks. Bernstein earlier this month raised its price target to $2,623 from $1,971 and kept an outperform rating. Bernstein is materially increasing its ASML topline forecasts following the unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity. Bernstein raised its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) shipment forecasts to 91 systems in 2027 and 113 in 2028 and expects ASML to expand EUV capacity.

Unique Aspects: ASML is an unusual “picks-and-shovels” play in the semiconductor industry. Its products are some of the foundational rungs on the manufacturing ladder, as they make the “printers” that inscribe the circuitry on silicon wafers. These giant machines are used throughout the industry by chip manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC), Samsung, and others. Notably, ASML is the only company in the world that makes Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography machines. These massive machines, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars and can weigh more than 150 tons, use intense light from high-powered lasers to carve into silicon wafers, with atomic-level precision. In fact, ASML originally stood for Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography.

Technicals: ASML shares hit an all-time high of $1,999.96 on Jun. 30 before making a rapid -13.7% price retreat to a repeat supportive area near $1,725. Other notable horizontal levels for traders to consider include repeated patterns of old highs and subsequent lows near $1,645, near $1,590, and near $1,445. To the upside, recent relative highs near $1,858 stand out as a possible resistance area to watch. A notable potential confluence also stands out near $1,700 or so. It represents the intersection of a downward-sloping trendline, starting with the all-time highs and connecting subsequent peaks, as well as the intersection of the 5-day and 21-day exponential moving averages. The options market potential expected move shows a range of about +/-136.7 (7.7%) for this Friday’s Jul. 17 expiration that will capture earnings. This projects a lower level of near $1,631, which is fairly close to the previously identified supportive zone near $1,645. Meanwhile, the Aug. 21 potential range comes in at +/-292.3 (16.5%), which suggests markets could be looking for new all-time highs by the next monthly expiration.

Economic Events/Data (ET) for Tuesday, July 14

• 06:00 AM: NFIB Business Optimism Index
• 08:15 AM: ADP Employment Change
• 08:30 AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Earnings Calendar Tuesday, July 14

• Premarket: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Fastenal (FAST), Ericsson (ERIC)
• Postmarket: Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)

Earnings Calendar Wednesday, July 15

• Premarket: ASML Holding (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), BNY (BNY), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Elevance Health (ELV), Cintas (CTAS)
• Postmarket: United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

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