Market Minute

Commentary and clips about what's moving the markets - stocks, options, economic data, futures, cryptocurrencies, and more

WTI Crude rose over 2% to start the week to over $71 per barrel as OPEC+ reversed its earlier decision to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) by December. This decision reflects OPEC+’s acknowledgment that demand for petroleum products remains weak across member nations. Recently, global supply has exceeded demand, with China’s lukewarm "reopening" narrative further dampening energy markets. Chinese refining output is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to sluggish domestic demand, affirming views that current stimulus measures have done little to drive robust growth in China’s industrial and consumer sectors. 

OPEC+ is also closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. elections, as shifts in energy policy could occur swiftly depending on the election outcome. Under the previous Trump administration, a greater emphasis was placed on Middle Eastern production, particularly from Saudi Arabia, to increase market supply and apply economic pressure on Iran. If similar policies are reintroduced should Donald Trump win the presidency, we may see downward pressure on oil prices, potentially impacting profit margins for domestic shale producers. 

OPEC+’s decision isn’t the only factor providing a potential bullish outlook for oil this week. A Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Thursday may also play a role. Given generally strong economic indicators, aside from Friday’s weak jobs report, a rate cut could fuel consumption growth, helping to relieve the supply side and improve profit margins. 

Finally, short positions in the weekly Commitment of Traders report published by the CFTC suggest a potential short-covering rally if demand fundamentals strengthen. Heating oil, in particular, is close to one of its largest net-short positions since it began trading on the NYMEX. With seasonal demand factors at play, heating oil may serve as an early indicator for a sustained rally in the energy sector if demand conditions improve and confidence among energy bulls strengthens. 

market minute
11 Nov 20242 min read

Winners

Crypto (/BTC) – Donald Trump called for turnover at the top of the SEC on day one, according to perhaps the most concrete policy view espoused by Trump and his team. Regulatory pressure should come off crypto, but whether this administration will do anything else with Bitcoin or crypto is completely unclear. Per usual with crypto, beware of unfulfilled promises. Also, beware of the long-term bearish divergence in the chart of BTC still - it needs a big breakout from the $70k-range to open room to the upside.


U.S. Dollar (/DX) – some are going to think there’s some irony to this but there’s not, and we’re seeing it play out already in overnight action with the dollar up 1.5%, an absolutely monster rally for the currency. This should stand out as contrary to the framework you’ve heard from most gold bugs and bitcoiners, but it makes sense and doesn’t have to be seen as a wrecking ball for risk assets. The dollar may stay bid alongside interest rates as the economic status quo – U.S. is the best house on block – continues to hold.


Elon the Man, Elon the company (X, TSLA), Elon the idea – Musk's X proved itself the most powerful media force this cycle, and now he's got a foot in the White House. The good news is he's disproven the haters at every turn with regards to his ability to multitask. Trump seems to really be in awe of SpaceX and other moonshot projects so expect a fertile environment for exploration and technological risk-taking.


Dealmakers – Regulatory oversight and antitrust regression was a hallmark of the Biden/Harris administration. Mergers and acquisitions have been blocked every turn in every sector. That could change dramatically. 

Prediction Markets like Kalshi, which were early in indicating a possible wide margin of victory for Trump – Pollsters flopped again in a big way, and if you believe that financial incentives discover truth in markets as I do, prediction markets should only get more accurate the more people trade them. 

Losers

Powell – this is the biggest thing people in markets aren’t talking about. Powell still has lots of time left on his term, but how much does that mean if the Trump admin looks to shed upwards of millions of government jobs as indicated by Trump advisor Vivek Ramaswamy to me in our interview. The biggest myth in this entire political cycle is that the economy is in dire straits. There is a frustrating wealth gap in America no doubt, but the economy continues to surprise it every turn and defy all bearish expectations. The Federal Reserve's stewardship plays no small role in this; upheaval at the institution would be unwelcome by markets.


In between

Stocks and Bonds – Stock and bond markets have largely been driven by the economic situation and policy by the Fed. A deep deregulatory overhaul or lower taxes in theory could be a positive catalyst for American businesses, but tariffs could act the other way. Bonds are selling off this morning, but bonds have already been doing that and should have been selling off big time yesterday with an extremely impressive ISM Services Report. It's been my baseline assumption that volatility would drop quickly after the election, which is likely to be a good environment for stocks and higher yields, but whether it lasts will be a function of the usual economic indicators.

market minute
11 Nov 20243 min read
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Market Minute: Pay Close Attention to the Bond Market

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Market Minute: Pay Close Attention to the Bond Market
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Market Minute: Bitcoin Pauses After Bullish Election Frenzy
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Market Minute: Uncertainty and Volatility Set in Before Election
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Market Minute: Will Amazon & Apple Earnings Be Tricks or Treats?
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28 Oct 2024

Market Minute: Crude Oil Plummets After Israel's Retaliatory Strikes on Iran
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Market Minute: Bitcoin Breaking Upward As Election Looms
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Market Minute: You Don't Need Trump to Explain Bonds
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Market Minute: Boeing (BA) Earnings Preview
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Market Minute: SPX Continues Grinding Higher
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Market Minute: More Oil Supply on the Horizon? Wait for the OPEC+ Meeting

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Market Minute: More Oil Supply on the Horizon? Wait for the OPEC+ Meeting
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Market Minute: China’s Stimulative Measures Follow the Path of the Fed

26 Sep 2024

Market Minute: China’s Stimulative Measures Follow the Path of the Fed
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Next Question Is If Breakout Becomes Melt-Up

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Next Question Is If Breakout Becomes Melt-Up
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Market Minute: Dow Logs All-Time Highs, But How Strong Is The Trend?
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24 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Bitcoin’s Rally Nears Resistance
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19 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Stocks Pushing Upward in Premarket After Fed’s Rate Cut
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Market Minute: The Logic for Powell Points to 50
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17 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Previewing FedEx (FDX) Earnings
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13 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Stopping the Leak in Oil Prices
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12 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Gradual Rate Cuts Match a Resilient Economy
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11 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Lose-Lose Response to Inflation Data Probably Back
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10 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Crude Oil Suffers Breakdown Through Support
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Market Minute: This Week’s Three Potential Catalysts

09 Sep 2024

Market Minute: This Week’s Three Potential Catalysts
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06 Sep 2024

Market Minute: S&P 500 On Pace For Worst Week Since April
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05 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Nasdaq Struggles to Regain Footing After Tuesday’s Rout
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Market Minute: Prepare for a September to Remember

04 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Prepare for a September to Remember
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Market Minute: Bitcoin’s Slide Downward Continues

03 Sep 2024

Market Minute: Bitcoin’s Slide Downward Continues
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30 Aug 2024

Market Minute: The Second Wave for Copper on the Horizon?
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29 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Nvidia Stumbles Despite Earnings Beat
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Market Minute: A Big Bond Rally Could Steal Show from Nvidia

28 Aug 2024

Market Minute: A Big Bond Rally Could Steal Show from Nvidia
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Market Minute: Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings Preview

27 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings Preview
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Market Minute: Nasdaq’s Uptrend Shows Possible Interruption

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Market Minute: Nasdaq’s Uptrend Shows Possible Interruption
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Market Minute: Is the Canadian Dollar Poised for the Next Big Short Squeeze?

23 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Is the Canadian Dollar Poised for the Next Big Short Squeeze?
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22 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Dow Pushes to the Upside into Resistance
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Market Minute: Dollar Selloff is Thorn in Rosy Two-Week Rally

21 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Dollar Selloff is Thorn in Rosy Two-Week Rally
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Market Minute: Equity Market Rebound is a Conditioned Response

20 Aug 2024

Market Minute: Equity Market Rebound is a Conditioned Response
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19 Aug 2024

Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium Begins This Week
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14 Aug 2024

Question for Rates is Not Where but Why
14 Aug 20241 min read
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Key Inflation Ecodata On The Horizon

12 Aug 2024

Key Inflation Ecodata On The Horizon
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Sitting Down With Robert Herjavec

10 Aug 2024

Sitting Down With Robert Herjavec
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A New Regime in Yields and Equity Correlation

09 Aug 2024

A New Regime in Yields and Equity Correlation
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Paramount Earnings Preview

08 Aug 2024

Paramount Earnings Preview
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It's Not the Yen(d) of the World

07 Aug 2024

It's Not the Yen(d) of the World
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05 Aug 2024

Previewing This Week’s Earnings
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First Major Japanese Bank Under Pressure Due to Higher-for-Longer and Unwinding Carry-Trade Strategy
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20 Jun 2024

Crude Oil Futures Push Above Resistance
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18 Jun 2024

Retail Sales Don’t Fit A.I. Upgrade Cycle Story
18 Jun 20241 min read
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17 Jun 2024

Small- and Large-Caps Still Trailing Index Peers
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14 Jun 2024

Supply Disruptions and War Premium Priced in LNG
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13 Jun 2024

Russell Futures Advance, But Not Enough for Breakout
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June's Fate Likely Decided Today

12 Jun 2024

June's Fate Likely Decided Today
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2024 Apple WWDC: The Morning After

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2024 Apple WWDC: The Morning After
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To Cut, or Not to Cut: FOMC Set To Begin

11 Jun 2024

To Cut, or Not to Cut: FOMC Set To Begin
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Recent Trends in Natural Gas Market

07 Jun 2024

Recent Trends in Natural Gas Market
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Markets Rally Despite Weaker Economic Data

06 Jun 2024

Markets Rally Despite Weaker Economic Data
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Nvidia Can’t Carry Us Much Longer

05 Jun 2024

Nvidia Can’t Carry Us Much Longer
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Previewing Dollar Tree (DLTR) Earnings

04 Jun 2024

Previewing Dollar Tree (DLTR) Earnings
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To Cut or Not to Cut – That is the Question…

03 Jun 2024

To Cut or Not to Cut – That is the Question…
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The Crude Dilemma

31 May 2024

The Crude Dilemma
31 May 20241 min read
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Nasdaq Futures Testing Support

30 May 2024

Nasdaq Futures Testing Support
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Nvidia Takes Back Seat to Macro

29 May 2024

Nvidia Takes Back Seat to Macro
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This Week: Inflation Data and the Fed

28 May 2024

This Week: Inflation Data and the Fed
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Solar Stocks: Newest A.I. Play?

24 May 2024

Solar Stocks: Newest A.I. Play?
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Russell Futures Lagging Peers as Technicals Soften

23 May 2024

Russell Futures Lagging Peers as Technicals Soften
23 May 20242 min read
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Nvidia Could Be Spark for Everything Rally

22 May 2024

Nvidia Could Be Spark for Everything Rally
22 May 20242 min read
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Utilities Sector A.I. Boom is All About Location

21 May 2024

Utilities Sector A.I. Boom is All About Location
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20 May 2024

What to Watch on Wall Street
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17 May 2024

Dow Futures Poised for New Highs?
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S&P Futures Hit Fresh All-Time Highs

16 May 2024

S&P Futures Hit Fresh All-Time Highs
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Bulls are Prepped for Good Data

15 May 2024

Bulls are Prepped for Good Data
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Home Depot Earnings Recap

14 May 2024

Home Depot Earnings Recap
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A Slow Start to a Busy Week on Wall Street

13 May 2024

A Slow Start to a Busy Week on Wall Street
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26 Apr 2024

Relax: It’s not Stagflation…Yet
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Meta’s Earnings Drag Down Nasdaq Futures

25 Apr 2024

Meta’s Earnings Drag Down Nasdaq Futures
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Tesla Bounce is Least Bulls Can Do

25 Apr 2024

Tesla Bounce is Least Bulls Can Do
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25 Apr 2024

Boeing Earnings, Test Case for Future Cost of Safety Strategy
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This Week: Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates

22 Apr 2024

This Week: Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates
22 Apr 20242 min read
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Bears Still Haven't Hit the Jugular

17 Apr 2024

Bears Still Haven't Hit the Jugular
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16 Apr 2024

S&P Futures Suffering Technical Damage Amid Pullback
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16 Apr 2024

Markets are Rebounding but a Bit on Edge
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Banking Earnings Recap

12 Apr 2024

Banking Earnings Recap
12 Apr 20241 min read
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S&P Futures Faltering as Ecodata Roils Markets

11 Apr 2024

S&P Futures Faltering as Ecodata Roils Markets
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A Redux of the 60/40 Stressor is Brewing

10 Apr 2024

A Redux of the 60/40 Stressor is Brewing
10 Apr 20242 min read
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A Busy Week Ahead

08 Apr 2024

A Busy Week Ahead
08 Apr 20241 min read
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Gold Continues Its Bull Run, but Silver May Outperform in This Macro Environment

04 Apr 2024

Gold Continues Its Bull Run, but Silver May Outperform in This Macro Environment
04 Apr 20244 min read
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Bitcoin Could Get Ugly in a Hurry

03 Apr 2024

Bitcoin Could Get Ugly in a Hurry
03 Apr 20243 min read
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Gold Continues to Shine with Fresh All-Time Highs

01 Apr 2024

Gold Continues to Shine with Fresh All-Time Highs
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28 Mar 2024

Walgreens (WBA) Earnings Recap
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