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When is a breakout not a breakout? Gold futures (/GC) traders must ponder this rather tricky question as the final trading day of the week dawns with some mixed signals from the yellow metal’s price action as equity futures rally out the gate ahead of a new incoming presidential administration on Monday. 

Gold has been on the move to the upside in recent weeks, with the /GC contract up about +5.8% from Dec. 18’s low of 2,598.10 as of yesterday’s close. The yellow metal now sits about -2% below its all-time highs of 2,801.80 in the premarket session. Yesterday’s +0.89% gain was notable because it pushed price above a shorter-term downward-sloping trendline that began with those same highs a little less than three months ago. An accompanying upward trendline beginning with the Nov. 14 lows presented an overall symmetrical triangle-type pattern, which is typically regarded as a sign of shrinking volatility as price compresses into an increasingly narrowing range. 

Low volatility may seem rather boring, but it’s worth paying attention to because it can often be a precursor to high volatility when price eventually makes a push in one direction beyond these well-established boundaries – a potentially valuable piece of evidence that the overall trend could be shifting. Now, traders face a situation where, on one hand, price has broken about above the trendline; but, on the other hand, it then stopped cold at the previous highs from mid-December near about 2,760. 

This level will be a key point to watch for whether /GC continues to rally. If price does break out above this level, the next area of interest is around 2,800. This is about where the old highs and the yearly Linear Regression Line (line of best fit) are clustered together, with the +1 Standard Deviation Channel currently suggesting that approximately 3,015 could be another area to monitor. To the downside, a retest of the old trendline could give potential support near about 2,718, while the 21-day Exponential Moving Average sits within a notable volume node (price level with heavy trading activity) near about 2,683.

market minute
17 Jan 20252 min read

Bitcoin futures (/BTC) have consolidated in recent weeks as traders assess the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on Mon., Jan. 20, which is expected to lead to a more crypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commissioner in Paul Atkins and then a potential broader overhaul of the SEC’s crypto policies. It’s still unclear how exactly everything will play out from a legislative perspective, but /BTC was up about +43% from the presidential election on Nov. 5 as of yesterday’s close, so traders seem to be feeling more bullish about their prospects for changes to the rules of the game. 

However, bitcoin futures retreated from the all-time highs of 108,960 on Dec. 17 and are down about -9% from there in today’s premarket trading. The /BTC contract saw some chop in recent weeks, with price zigzagging back and forth around the confluence of its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (now near 97,184) and a volume node centered roughly around 96,500 as it made successively lower closing highs. On the other hand, price also mostly stayed above its recent low close of 91,615 from Nov. 26 and is making a series of higher closing lows, which then presents a more triangular shape overall. This sharp rally spurred by a major fundamental change and then followed by a period of sideways-to-downward consolidation in a roughly triangular shape could present a setup for a bull pennant-type of pattern. 

Price is right on the verge of breaking above the trendline sloping down from the all-time highs, and momentum could follow suit if that happens. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, is poised for its own breakout from a very similar trendline. This could provide further credence to an upside move, especially if both price and RSI take out their respective recent highs from Jan. 6. 

If price does push above the trendline, there is another potential source of resistance just above; the +1 yearly Standard Deviation Channel sits near 102,752. From there, the old closing high of 106,985 is an important mark to beat and the +2 SDC channel currently projects further potential resistance near 118,024. To the downside, the recent floor that was established near 91,615 is a key point to watch. Further downside action could result in tests of the 63-day EMA near 89,760 and the yearly Linear Regression Line (line of best fit) near 87,481, with another critical point being the post-election gap up lows near 80,670.

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