Can Apple (AAPL) Surprise and Shine Announcements Lift Stock Price?

The Apple (AAPL) Surprise and Shine product reveal Wednesday could bring one of the tech giant’s most significant – and, for consumers, most expensive -- product launches in years, including the widely anticipated unveiling of its first foldable phone.

Investors will be looking for new hardware, devices, and perhaps some clarity on AI enhancements at 1 p.m. ET today. The big question is how the stock reacts to product releases with the shares at elevated valuations compared to historical averages.

What Does Apple Share Valuation Reflect?

Apple stock has risen over 16% this year and is up nearly 33% over the last 12 months. Even though the stock has fallen 8% from its all-time high of $344.57 at the end of July, the shares may have priced in a lot of the potential good news. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is near 33x, which is well above the 10-year average of about 24x. This higher multiple reflects strong market expectations for future profitability, and that the company has posted strong results relative to expectations over the last few earnings reports.

New Products Under New Apple CEO

This will be the first major hardware unveil led by Apple’s new CEO, John Ternus, who officially succeeded Tim Cook on September 1. Today, what may matter most is how many new phones will be released in the iPhone 18 lineup, and what price increases will be in the lineup due to rising input costs, most notably on memory. Apple could introduce AI improvements on the software side.

What Products Are Anticipated from Apple Surprise and Shine?

According to MacRumors, the event will see Apple announce an iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the foldable iPhone, which could be called the iPhone Ultra. There won't be an iPhone 18 this year because Apple is waiting until spring 2027 to launch the more affordable models. All three new iPhones will supposedly use Apple's latest A20 Pro chip built on a 2nm process for speed and efficiency improvements. The iPhone 18 Pro models could get an upgraded variable aperture rear camera but will otherwise be similar to the iPhone 17 Pro models, according to MacRumors. The highlight will be the foldable Ultra version of the iPhone, which may cost over $2,000, according to some reports. The company is also reportedly going to announce the Apple Watch series 12 and Ultra 4.

What is Pressuring Apple Product Pricing?

While the technology in hardware is anticipated to be a major jump, consumers are going to feel it at checkout. A global shortage of memory chips, driven heavily by hyper-scale cloud provider demand, has forced component costs to rise. Apple is passing a portion of these macro costs down, resulting in noticeable price increases across the board. Former Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that price increases for Apple products are unavoidable due to skyrocketing memory and storage chip costs. Cook described this as a "100-year flood" for component pricing in an interview with the Wall Street Journal and noted that shielding customers from the surging expenses had become "unsustainable."

What is Apple Doing to Enhance AI Capability?

While new hardware historically gets all the hype, investors are increasingly focused on Apple's AI enhancements. Reports suggest Apple could showcase deeper Siri integration and expanded Apple Intelligence features across iOS 27, which is also an upgrade to its operating system. Traders will be watching closely for evidence that AI can become a meaningful upgrade catalyst. Apple has pushed aside most criticism for lagging some competitors in generative AI but has avoided much of the out-sized CapEx spend also. This product launch may be an opportunity to demonstrate progress and potentially expand iPhone replacement cycles.

AI advancements and the company's first foldable iPhone could potentially provide the next catalysts for AAPL shares. For investors, will the announcements be enough to support the high valuation relative to its historical average?

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