Closing Bell: Commodities Shine, Bitcoin Slinks; ISM Contracts, S&P PMI Expands

Market Recap

Equities eased after a strong holiday week as the tape digested weaker crypto, a rise in yields, and mixed manufacturing data.

Stocks started December on the back foot as crypto weakness and mixed factory data outweighed a firm bid in commodities. By the close, the S&P 500 fell -0.5%, the Dow -0.9%, the Nasdaq -0.4%, and the Russell 2000 -1.0%, reflecting broad but not panicked risk off selling. Under the surface, leadership skewed to Energy and Materials as crude, gold, and silver stayed bid, while Utilities, Real Estate, and Industrials lagged on the growth and rate mix.

Tech was mixed, with crypto- and AI-sensitive names softer, and cash-generative franchises holding up. In macro, the 10-year yield hovered near 4.05%, the VIX pushed up toward 18.1 suggesting a firmer hedge bid rather than outright stress, and the U.S. dollar (DXY) eased to 99.34, consistent with the metals strength and a market still leaning toward easier policy ahead.

The manufacturing picture remained split, with S&P Global’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI ~52.2 (expansion) and ISM Manufacturing Index at 48.2 (contraction). 

Breaking down ISM

New Orders: 47.4 — demand contracted at a faster pace, signaling softer forward pipelines.

Employment: 44.0 — deeper contraction, consistent with ongoing hiring freezes/cuts in pockets of manufacturing.

Prices Paid: 58.5 — inflation pressure re-accelerated, with more firms reporting rising input costs (metals, components, energy).

Adding a macro pivot, the Fed formally ended QT today, instructing the New York Fed’s Desk to roll over all Treasury maturities and reinvest agency MBS principal into Treasury bills, a shift aimed at stabilizing reserves and easing money-market frictions as we head into year-end.

Notable Earnings

Post-market today (Mon, Dec 1): MDB, CRDO. (MongoDB’s call set for 5:00 p.m. ET)

Pre-market tomorrow (Tue, Dec 2): SIG (Signet Jewelers)

Economic data tomorrow (Tue, Dec 2 — ET)

10:00 a.m.: JOLTS Job Openings 

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