Closing Bell: FOMC Minutes Expose Divided Fed

Market Overview

Markets ended the day slightly higher overall despite uncertainty around U.S./Iran relations and the collapse of Russia and Ukraine peace talks. The FOMC minutes release provided a small bump for equities, but indexes gave back gains before the close. The S&P 500 ended up 0.56%, the Nasdaq-100 up 0.80%, the Dow up 0.26%, and the Russell 2000 up 0.45%.

Oil gained over 4.5% in Thursday’s session, driven by the aforementioned Russia and Iran stories. Gold, considered a hedge, rose another 2%, while Bitcoin continued its slump, down another 2% today.

The market is looking forward to a slew of economic data tomorrow, along with the PCE print on Friday. Walmart (WMT) earnings are tomorrow morning, the biggest company to report this week.

Palo Alto Networks Earnings

Palto Alto Networks (PANW) was the worst S&P 500 performer on the day after earnings Tuesday afternoon, falling over 7%. Multiple analysts lowered their price targets on the stock, even as they maintained bullish ratings. They expect the company to benefit from increased cybersecurity needs in the AI world. However, it is digesting a spate of recent acquisitions, and guidance disappointed the Street despite beating estimates on the top and bottom line.

FOMC Minutes Released

January’s FOMC minutes were released today, with little immediate reaction from the Treasury market. “Almost all participants” supported a rate pause in January, though “several participants” see further cuts ahead if inflation continues to cool. On the other hand, most members thought that disinflation could be slower than expected. Market odds of a rate cut are very low for March and April, but warm towards June. Of note, the minutes hinted at potential for a rate hike.

Tomorrow’s Economic Data

• 8:20 AM ET: Fed’s Bostic Speaks
• 8:30 AM ET: Intl. Trade in Goods (Delayed), Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Fed’s Bowman Speaks, Retail Inventories (Delayed), Wholesale Inventories (Delayed)
• 9:00 AM ET: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks
• 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales, Leading Indicators (Delayed)
• 10:30 AM ET: Natural Gas Report, Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks
• 11:00 AM ET: Treasury Buyback Announcement
• 12:00 PM ET: EIA Petroleum Status report
• 2:30 PM ET: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks
• 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Tomorrow’s Earnings

• Premarket: APPN, BAND, CNP, CHH, CWK, DE, EPAM, ETSY, KLAR, LMND, POOL, FUN, SO, FTI, TECK, VC, WMT, W, YETI

Postmarket: AKAM, CARG, CC, ED, CPRT, DBX, FIVN, FND, HHH, LZ, LYV, NEM, OPEN, RNG, ST, SFM, TXRH, RIG, WK

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