Homebuilder Recession Looms? What Lennar’s (LEN) Earnings May Reveal

Lennar Corp. (LEN) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results after the market closes today. The release will provide key insights into how one of the nation's largest homebuilders is navigating the currently challenging U.S. housing market. As of 2025, it is the second-largest home construction company in the United States based on the number of homes sold. Lennar has investments in multifamily and single-family residential rental properties, luxury development, property technology with LenX, and mortgage lending from Lennar Mortgage.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $2.23 over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a decline of 44% from earnings of $4.03 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $9.13 billion, indicating an 8.3% decline from the year-ago figure of $9.95 billion. Lennar expects to deliver between 22,000 and 23,000 homes, at an Average Selling Price (ASP) of between $380,000 and $390,000. This compares to 22,206 homes delivered at an ASP of $430,000 in the same quarter last year, indicating a notable drop in home prices.

The thorn in the side of homebuilders this year has been elevated mortgage rates. While 30-year fixed mortgage rates have come down from recent peaks near 8%, they still hovered between 6.23% and 6.5% during the September-to-November 2025 period, keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. The company has been actively using incentives to boost sales and manage inventory, which has put pressure on its profit margins. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up slightly in December but remains well below the breakeven point of 50 for the 20th consecutive month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

Lennar stock is down 12% this year as of Monday’s close and is off 38% from its all-time high of $193.80 in September of 2024. The Option Market is pricing in a 1-day move of +/- 5.7% ($6.85). The bar is low going into the report as the United States’ housing market is navigating through weak homebuyers’ confidence due to still-high mortgage rates, tariff-related uncertainties and lingering inflationary pressures. But maybe the bar should be low because until mortgage rates get below the key 6% level, buyer appetite may remain tepid at best.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.