Intel (INTC) Earnings on Tap: Show-Me Story

Sustainable margin expansion as part of an aggressive corporate turnaround strategy will be in focus when Intel (INTC) reports second-quarter results after the close on Thursday. 

Driven by one of the largest transformations in the semiconductor industry, under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, INTC stock has seen elevated volatility and strong momentum in 2026. The stock had a parabolic move in the first half of the year and hit an all-time high of $142.35 on June 30. The stock has come down this month and now sits in Bear-Market territory, off by 27% from its record high. However, shares are still up 178% this year as of Wednesday’s close. After the dramatic recovery this year, Intel enters earnings with rising expectations around its core CPU franchise, improving margins, and growing expectations in its foundry business. Recent industry news has also raised hopes that demand for server processors will continue and could accelerate as AI infrastructure evolves. 

The Zacks consensus estimate calls for Q2 revenue of approximately $14.4 billion, representing 12% year-over-year growth. On the bottom line, Intel's Q2 adjusted earnings are projected to come in at $0.21 per share, a dramatic improvement from a loss of -$0.10 a share in the year-ago period. Intel Management previously guided for revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP gross margin near 39%. The option market is pricing in the possibility of a hefty +/- 11.2% one-day move ($11.60) for the stock post earnings.  

CPU demand has been driving the stock this year as agentic AI applications will increase CPU demand inside AI data centers. While GPUs remain critical for AI training, CPUs play an essential role in orchestrating workloads, managing memory, and handling complex multi-step processes. This has driven the stellar gains this year for Intel and its main rival AMD. Nvidia (NVDA) is expanding aggressively into the CPU market by targeting both enterprise data centers with its new Vera CPU and setting up a direct challenge to x86 incumbents Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).  

The foundry business may generate the most attention on the conference call. The Foundry segment is viewed as the largest potential value-creation opportunity for the company over the next decade. Intel Foundry operating losses remain deep but are projected to incrementally narrow, with external foundry revenue serving as the primary metric to prove 18A process adoption. Investors are looking for updates on Intel's advanced 18A process technology and potential external customers. Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are working with Intel's foundry business, according to reports, and have increased optimism that the segment could eventually become a meaningful source of revenue and profitability.   

Margin performance will be closely watched as one of the clearest indicators of whether Intel's manufacturing investments are beginning to generate attractive returns.  

Intel enters earnings as a company undergoing significant transformation. The traditional CPU business is showing signs of acceleration, AI infrastructure demand may provide an unexpected boost to server processors, and the Foundry operation is steadily moving towards monetization. While quarterly revenue and earnings will matter, the real ‘show-me’ story is whether management can demonstrate continued progress on its manufacturing path along with margin growth. 

The question for investors and traders: Can Intel sustain or improve upon the expected 39% margin level? 

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

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