Market Minute: Bitcoin’s Slide Downward Continues

It’s been a challenging week for bitcoin bulls, as the /BTC futures contract has fallen about -9.25% from the intraday highs of 65,200 on Aug. 26 to Friday’s close. Price is modestly advancing in today’s premarket session after the long weekend, but the overall picture for the cryptocurrency futures has been more geared toward the downside ever since hitting the all-time highs of 74,415 on Mar. 14. From this point, traders have seen a pattern of gradually lower highs and lower lows. This broader downtrend beginning with the all-time highs remains in play, despite the bulls trying to rally off the recent lows on Aug. 5. The shorter-term uptrend beginning with that low point near 49,365 has been broken, and a steeper downtrend starting with the Jul. 29 relative highs is now also in effect.

During the past week, price has fallen below several important moving averages, including the 21-day and 63-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the 50-day Simple Moving Average. This is a bearish signal to consider, but at least price has so far held the 200-day Simple Moving Average, currently near about 57,350, after dipping below this level during the premarket session. Momentum also recently weakened according to the Relative Strength Index, also known as the RSI. This indicator remains in a downtrend and fell below the 50-midline that separates bullish and bearish momentum, quickly reversing its bullish crossover that happened Aug. 23. Additionally, the shorter-term uptrend in RSI that matched the pattern from the recent lows on Aug. 5 also was broken, so this is another more bearish sign.

Bullish /BTC traders likely will be looking for a strong push above roughly 60,700 to 60,845, as this represents a post-gap up low point as well as the 21-day EMA. The 63-EMA is fairly close as well, coming in near 61,977, with the shorter-term downtrend line around 63,200. To the downside, look for further support around 56,295, as it represents the most recent notable low, and beyond that near 53,660. This area is noteworthy because it’s another low point from Jul. 5, as well as the site of the 252-EMA.