Market Minute: Make or Break Week for Oil

Crude oil futures (/CL) continue to climb, with a 7% gain since Dec. 27. What began as a short-covering event has evolved into a short-term breakout. Crude has surpassed a key resistance level at $72, reaching its highest price since mid-October. Here are two key headlines driving prices higher today:  

Stronger Sanctions on Russian Oil

The Biden administration is expected to impose more aggressive sanctions on Russian oil companies that have violated the $60 price cap established in 2022, following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These new measures will target oil companies and over 100 tankers identified as part of the so-called "shadow fleet." 

This fleet consists of older tankers engaged in the unauthorized movement of oil, often using ship-to-ship transfers to bypass international regulations. The sanctions could also impact Indian oil imports, as India has been purchasing Russian oil without facing significant consequences. 

Saudi Aramco Price Hike

Overnight, Saudi Aramco raised February oil prices for Asian markets—the first price increase in three months. This comes amid sluggish global demand for physical oil, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets. The price hike may also reflect Aramco’s attempt to capitalize on the recent rise in Iranian crude prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over stricter enforcement of sanctions. 

 Adding to the market dynamics, OPEC+ has delayed introducing additional oil production due to weak price support. However, this price adjustment could signal growing confidence.