Market Minute: Nvidia – Low Bar into GTC Developers Conference
Nvidia’s (NVDA) annual GTC developers conference started on Monday. Today, Chief Executive Jensen Huang will give a keynote speech at 1PM ET, in which he is expected to showcase a new version of Nvidia's Blackwell AI chips. Markets are expecting a flurry of news covering what’s next in agentic AI, robotics, accelerated computing, and more. Nvidia has already said it expects to launch the latest version of its Blackwell chip this year, and the next-generation Rubin chip platform in 2026. During Nvidia’s most recent earnings call, Huang confirmed that the upcoming Blackwell B300 series, codenamed Blackwell Ultra, is slated for release in the second half of this year. The conference comes at a dicey time for investors, as Nvidia stock has struggled significantly over the past couple of months. The company needs a growth-driving catalyst to help usher a turnaround as uncertainty pushes down the stock and the tech sector as a whole.
Also, Thursday will be the company’s first-ever Quantum Day, during which Huang will be joined on stage by leaders from companies such as D-Wave Systems (QBTS), IonQ (IONQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI). These leaders will discuss where quantum computing is heading at a time when quantum computing technology is making significant steps forward. Notably, Huang recently stated at the CES event in January that quantum computing won't be "very useful" for 15-30 years, which threw a wet towel on investor optimism for the technology and the stocks in the sector.
Shares of Nvidia have fallen 11% this year and are down 22% from its all-time high of $153.13 at the beginning of January. Historically, Nvidia shares have rallied into its developers conference, but this time is different as investors are wary of growth and expectations on tech spending in an uncertain environment. Many do not believe or expect the GTC event to overshadow all the uncertainties and worries regarding weakening macro, tariff uncertainties, China restrictions, weaker gross margins near term, and pace of the new product ramp given supply chain challenges. The stock has bounced off of six-month lows over the last week on potential optimism for the event but is still down 4% in March.
With the option market pricing in a +/- 6% move this week, implied volatility levels are elevated in the near-term March 21 series that expires on Friday. Nvidia is in the three major indices so it may set the tone for equity markets this week. Will Nvidia provide a lift for the tech sector or will the GTC event confirm the headwinds that the stock faces? Answers to come shortly…
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