Market Minute: This Week Just Got Interesting

Stocks were supposed to be on cruise-control this week. Without much economic data on the calendar and a limited number of big-ticket earnings, the steady bullish price momentum of the past several weeks should be enough to extend recent highs in the S&P 500. A pickup in crypto prices and strength in small-caps also point to increasing risk appetite. 

Yesterday's session suggests there could be a speed bump or two along the way. Disappointing earnings guidance from ASML (ASML) sent semiconductors reeling and a bad manufacturing print from New York put the first real bid into bonds in more than a month. Both of these moves are probably best described as temporary counter-trend reversions, but they're both worth a closer look.

The best way to think about ASML is probably through the lens of Nvidia (NVDA). ASML is a major supplier to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the major producer of Nvidia chips. If the guidance reflects on those companies the implications for the market could be very real. More likely is that ASML's more legacy customers like Intel (INTC) are responsible for the disappointment, but the rejection of Nvidia right at its previous high leaves the possibility of a double top in its chart, which should keep traders on their toes for at least a day or two.

As far as bonds go, Treasuries were probably due for a little bit of a reset after a persistent sell-off that began with the Fed's 50 basis point cut. The big question for investors related to that move is whether or not lower rates will spur a fresh cycle in the economy, which is what's been suggested by bear-steepening in the yield curve. It's a question still very much up for debate and will get an important update via tomorrow's retail sales, but yesterday's JB Hunt (JBHT) report suggests there may be an uptick in activity on the way.