Next Question Is If Breakout Becomes Melt-Up

The question from here is if the market breakout is going to turn into a melt-up. We got our record in the S&P 500 (SPX), we got the 50 basis points from the Fed, and up until Tuesday's Consumer Confidence report, economic data were starting to surprise more positively again. Still, we haven't extended too far beyond the previous range in stocks, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is still a good ways off its July high.

 If a few more pieces fall into place, that could change very quickly.

 The first sign that the rally might be picking up fresh momentum is Tuesday's bounce in Nvidia (NVDA). Still arguably the most important stock in the market, shares had been stuck under $120 up until yesterday's pop. Reports that CEO Jensen Huang is done selling shares spurred a much-needed rally that puts the semiconductor trade back in the spotlight after months of underperformance. The Vaneck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been languishing under its high from last month – if it can get past that, it's not hard to envision a path back to a record for chips and the Nasdaq 100.

 On the macro side, this week's interest-rate cut by the Chinese will likely add some fresh risk appetite as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure. Any support for the Chinese economy should be good for commodity-linked sectors, as well as a few of our biggest tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). 

 Along the same lines, it's worth watching for a potential revival in crypto prices as a sign things are getting frothy. Bitcoin (/BTC) is firming up over the past week alongside gold (/GC), which has been making new records on a daily basis. Gold and bitcoin have proven to have two polar opposite utilities for the portfolio – safety in the form of gold and risk in the form of Bitcoin. When the two are talking together, it's usually a sign that investors are ready to buy everything. 

 The biggest limitation to frothy rally will be the economic data. Treasury yields have risen and bear-steepened since the Fed's cut, and its encouraging message about future growth. If that trend reverses, stocks likely will slow down.