Oil Stocks Lead S&P 500 After Maduro Ouster

Oil stocks like Halliburton (HAL), SLB (SLB), Valero (VLO) and Chevron (CVX) are leading the S&P 500 in premarket trading. 

Over the weekend, the U.S. ousted Venezuelan leader Maduro and is bringing him to New York to face charges. This is a marked escalation from previous U.S. actions, which included a blockade of Venezuelan oil. Chevron is the only one currently operating in Venezuela under special U.S. permission, but the country is in debt to ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) to the tune of billions.

Clearly, the market expects these energy giants to be able to get a piece of Venezuela’s substantial oil resources. President Trump said U.S. oil companies would spend billions to rebuild the country’s energy infrastructure.

UBS expects a market surplus of oil to persist early in the year but argues that Venezuelan output will likely “take considerable time.” Bloomberg reports that port equipment is “in such poor shape that it takes up to five days to fully load supertankers,” and drilling pads “have been ransacked in broad daylight.”

Reuters reports that exports are currently “paralyzed” as captains wait for authorization to load and sail. China has been the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude, and it remains to be seen whether the U.S. will lift its embargo.

Altogether, it is an uncertain time in the region. The market seems to be favoring U.S. involvement in the region, even as it would require energy companies to spend tens of billions to repair the sector. Political uncertainty could continue, both in Venezuela and China, that muddy the picture further.

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