Russell Futures Advance, But Not Enough for Breakout

Russell 2000 futures enjoyed a +1.6% gain yesterday, spurred on by cooler-than-expected inflation data in the Consumer Price Index report. But the small-cap index failed to break above its relative highs from June 3 and is still making a series of lower highs since the 52-week peak of 2,167 on Apr. 1. Overall, the price action has been largely sideways during 2024 so far.

The technical picture remains mixed for the /RTY contract. Yesterday’s advance cleared the 21-day and 63-day Exponential Moving Averages as well as the 50-day Simple Moving Average; however, price has once again slipped below the 21-day EMA in early trading and is holding just above the other two moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, has mostly been drifting sideways but is below the 50 midline, which is a slightly bearish lean. Consider as well that the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, gives a reading of only 12 when a level of 25 or above suggests a strong trend. This sluggish level suggests weak directionality.

If the move up from yesterday continues today, look for short-term resistance at the yearly Linear Regression Line near 2,068 and then at yesterday’s highs near 2,095. Traders also could consider a downward-sloping trendline starting from the yearly highs and connecting to the next set of highs from mid-May, which would come in near 2,105. To the downside, look for the 63-day EMA to hold today, which is currently near 2,049. Beyond that, price bottomed out near 2,005 two days in a row this week, so this could be another important area to watch.