
Santa Claus Rally Optimism Into Year End
Thomas White
Co-HostU.S. stock futures are relatively flat in premarket trading after the three major indices closed on a 4-session rally.
The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) settled at a record high close and is up 17.5% this year. Tech led the rally on Tuesday with gains in Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Amazon (AMZN) providing support.
Delayed U.S. gross domestic product came in at 4.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.2% and also helped lift stock yesterday. Optimism for the Santa Claus rally has grown, with the last five days of December and first two trading days of January historically over 1% higher.
But, stocks have experienced two straight years of no rally over this time frame in 2023 and 2024. Stocks close early at 1:00 pm ET today and are closed tomorrow for the Christmas holiday.
Snapshot (as of 7 AM ET)
- Oil (/CL) – Oil prices have inched higher in quiet trade and the front end WTI contract is up 0.2% on the day near $58.50 per barrel. Investors are keeping a close eye on short term supply risks as the U.S. increases pressure on Venezuela. Hostilities between Ukraine and Russia also continue, with both sides targeting energy infrastructure and energy-related assets. API data meanwhile showed that crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, with gasoline and distillate stocks also rising.
- Gold (/GC) – Gold futures are up 0.3% near $4515 and hit another record high overnight, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on U.S.-Venezuela tensions, while silver also rallied to a fresh peak. The dollar is also down to 2-month lows which is supporting the precious metals.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) – The Crypto Future is down 0.4% near 87,200 in premarket trading.
- VIX – The CBOE Volatility Index was down 0.6% on Tuesday and settled at 14.00 as stocks were higher. It was the lowest close for the VIX in just over a year (12/13/2024).
- U.S. Dollar (/DX) – The dollar is flat at 2-month lows around 97.6.
Biggest Premarket Movers (as of 7 AM ET - Mark % Change)
- Nike (NKE): +2.11%
- Micron (MU): +0.77%
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): +0.66%
- Alphabet (GOOG): +0.47%
- Lockheed Martin (LMT): +0.40%
- Intel (INTC): -3.05%
- Albemarle (ALB): -0.61%
- Coinbase (COIN): -0.50%
- Oracle (ORCL): -0.28%
- Centene (CNC): -0.25%
Economic Data
- 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims
- 1:00 PM ET: 7-Year Note Auction, Markets Close
Notable Earnings
- Premarket: None
- Postmarket: None
- Premarket Tomorrow: None
- Postmarket Tomorrow: None
Upgrades/Downgrades
- Alliance Global downgrades Spire Global (SPIR) to Neutral from Buy
- Raymond James downgrades KB Home (KBH) to Market Perform from Outperform
