United Airlines (UAL) Earnings Preview

United Airlines (UAL) reports earnings after the bell today. Zacks expects 2Q25 EPS of $3.86 (-7% year-over-year) and revenue of $15.36 billion (+2.5% year-over-year). UAL stock is down 11% year-to-date but is up 93% since last July. 

Shares saw a bump after Delta Airlines (DAL) earnings revived market enthusiasm for the sector. Delta surprised to the upside on the top and bottom lines and, perhaps more importantly, restored full-year guidance. 

Delta dropped FY guidance in April after Trump first announced worldwide tariffs. However, note that its new guidance is lower than the original. 

The uncertainty caused by trade policy pushed United to give two guidance options in April, a “stable environment scenario” and a “recessionary environment scenario.”

Delta’s good quarter was driven by premium and international travel. Can United post a similar win? Investors will be watching passenger revenue metrics, along with the cost of fuel and the overall cost per available seat mile (CASM).

Even assuming strong demand, United is under pressure from a number of broader sector issues. Earlier this year, UAL cut 35 daily flights at Newark Airport, citing a lack of air traffic controllers. Tragic accidents this year around the world have also put airlines – and some passengers – on edge. Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, stated while speaking at the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference that the company “almost certainly” would have hit the high end of 2Q expectations if not for Newark.

Fluctuating trade policy is making consumer demand more difficult to predict, though it seems to remain strong – TSA expected over 18.5 million fliers over the July 4 holiday alone. Investors are focusing more on customer loyalty: rewards programs, repeat fliers, higher-income passengers paying extra for luxuries. Business travel is another important slice of the pie: unlike leisure traveling, with business, the show must go on.

The options market is implying around a $6 move up or down, or about a 7% move. Tune into the Schwab Network for live earnings breakdowns and more!