Week Ahead: First Warsh FOMC Minutes as Earnings Season Looms

Traders will return to a relatively light period for markets in terms of pre-determined earnings and economic releases after the shortened-holiday week; but is it the calm before the storm that is the earnings season kickoff next week?

Markets were mostly higher to start off the first week of trading in July, with the S&P 500 (SPX) up 1.75% and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) up 0.72%. Unlike its two index counterparts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) pushed into a record close of 52,900.07, a 1.97% gain for the week. Meanwhile, the small-cap focused Russell 2000 (RUT), the odd man out, fell -0.46% on the week despite also making a new all-time high of 3,046.59.

Crude oil futures (/CL) continued a four-week slide, with a -2.52% drop this week to $68.43 per barrel. Gold futures (/GC) broke their own four-week losing streak with rise of 0.74%, while Bitcoin futures (/BTC) bounced from a 52-week low Thursday of 57,850 to gain 2.7% for the week.

Three things to watch in the coming week:

• Economic data and FOMC Minutes: The standout economic data this week includes Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales on July 9, as well as the S&P Global PMI and the ISM PMI on July 6 and the WASDE Report on July 10. The Federal Reserve also will be a major focus, as the minutes from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as the new chair will be released on July 8. These minutes are likely to face heavy scrutiny and analysis from investors as they try to discern the probability of interest rate changes. Learn more here: The Market May Be Underestimating the Next Wave of Inflation.
• Earnings Season Next Week: The week of Jul. 6 is relatively light in terms of earnings, with PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) as the standout names. But earnings season kicks off once again the following week, with major financial institutions as the first group to report on July 14, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Learn more about recent bullish analyst activity on airlines to gear up for DAL earnings here: Thursday’s Morning Movers: ADBE Upgrade, GOOGL Price Target Cut & Airline Hikes.
• Texas Stock Exchange Opens: Financial markets have a newcomer joining the crew, with the Texas Stock Exchange scheduled to begin trading on July 6 in “specified test stocks.” The Dallas-based exchange, abbreviated as TXSE, and tongue-in-cheek referred to as “Y’all Street,” projects it will roll out its first exchange-traded product and corporate listing in the fall.

Economic Events/Data (ET)

Monday, July 6

• 09:45 AM: S&P Global PMI (June)
• 10:00 AM: ISM PMI (June)
• 11:30 AM: 3- and 6-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday, July 7

• 08:15 AM: ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 08:30 AM: Balance of Trade (May)
• 04:30 PM: API Crude Oil Stock Change

Wednesday, July 8

• 07:00 AM: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 10:30 AM: EIA Crude Oil, Gasoline Stocks Change
• 02:00 PM: FOMC Minutes

Thursday, July 9

• 08:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims
• 09:00 AM: Fed Williams Speech
• 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales (June)

Friday, July 10

• 01:00 PM: Baker Hughes Rig Counts

Earnings Calendar

Monday, July 6 n/a

Tuesday, July 7

• Premarket: Penguin Solutions (PENG), Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC)
• Postmarket: n/a

Wednesday, July 8

• Premarket: Levi Strauss (LEVI), Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX)
• Postmarket: PriceSmart (PSMT), AZZ (AZZ)

Thursday, July 9

• Premarket: PepsiCo (PEP), Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
• Postmarket: WD40 (WDFC)

Friday, July 10

• Premarket: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
• Postmarket: n/a

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant or forex dealer member.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.