WTI Crude Moves 2% on Geopolitical Risk

Oil markets caught a bid to start the week as the United States continues to expand seizures of oil tankers operating near Venezuelan waters. Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out a second operation, seizing another oil tanker early Saturday morning—the Motor Tanker Centuries. While the vessel itself is not on a U.S. sanctions list, officials said it was carrying sanctioned oil, which made it a target.

There are now reports that the U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing another sanctioned tanker near Venezuela. This vessel, named Bella 1, is reportedly empty but is listed under U.S. sanctions. While there have been no confirmed reports that the tanker has officially been boarded, oil markets are beginning to price in a potential escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Traders are increasingly speculating that the “blockade” announced by President Trump last week could be expanded beyond initial expectations, potentially impacting a greater volume of global oil flows.

Adding another layer of complexity, the Motor Tanker Centuries is reported to have been shipping Venezuelan oil to China, raising questions about China’s potential involvement and response as the situation evolves.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude is approaching its first major area of resistance at the 20-day moving average near $58.08. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positioning for a potential bullish crossover over the coming sessions if the current upward momentum continues.

Overall, the oil market has been in a downward trend for most of 2025, driven by concerns over a supply glut and weak demand in certain key regions. However, geopolitical risk, though difficult to predict, can shift market sentiment quickly. This current event could provide near-term upside for prices if a diplomatic resolution is not reached soon.

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