Claudia Sahm explains how 50% copper tariffs would undercut U.S. manufacturing capabilities and argues more broadly that tariffs are “in the pipeline” on their way to hit impact consumers. She calls the slowdown in private payrolls “notable” as she looks at the labor picture. “We’re not in a bad place, but the direction we’re heading…gives us less support on the consumer side going forward.” However, she thinks it is “appropriate” for the Fed to stay in wait-and-see mode. She doesn’t expect a recession: “that piece isn’t there.”