John Lonski warns that the Federal Reserve is increasingly divided as dissent within the FOMC reaches its highest level in decades. He explains why pressure for rate cuts clashes with persistent energy and material costs, leaving small businesses and manufacturers squeezed despite a resilient labor market. Lonski also cautions that rising gasoline prices and elevated long‑term yields could heighten recession risk as the Powell era nears its end and markets adjust to the limits of Fed intervention.