Ryan Dykmans thinks the market is too aggressively pricing in a rate cut, calling the odds more “60/40” than the over 80% currently projected. He thinks the Fed really needs to watch labor market data into their September meeting. Ryan is also concerned about inflation, and argues that while the U.S. consumer is “fine” right now, incoming tariff impacts could hit hard in the next few quarters. His worst-case scenario is GDP dropping and sending the U.S. into recession.