Ben Emons expects a 50-basis-point cut, even though the market predicts a slim chance of that big a move. He argues that we’re in the same position as we were last year, and the Fed will try to “get ahead of the unemployment rate.” He thinks the Fed no longer believes inflation is the biggest issue facing the economy and that precludes a “hawkish” cut. Ben emphasizes the difficulty of the Fed’s position and the weight of the language we’ll see in Powell’s presser.