Ellen Wald examines the forces shaping the energy market in 2026. If oil prices fall below $60, she thinks OPEC+ could try to enforce supply cuts to push prices higher. China demand, U.S. oil sanctions, and shale producers complicate the picture as well. She thinks supply worries are “not justified.” She argues that the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil could push prices down even further, especially if the U.S. seizes supply.