Ben Emons says hotter inflation, including renewed shelter pressures, could force the Federal Reserve to become more restrictive, with his model putting the odds of an October rate hike around 70%. He also breaks down turmoil in French bonds, where political and fiscal uncertainty is driving investors away from French debt and pressuring European banks. While contagion remains relatively contained, Emons warns higher European yields and tighter financial conditions could still spill over into U.S. markets.