Nancy Vanden Houten breaks down the labor market and Fed policy ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. She sees jobless claims as a "noisy" data point, but notes if the current level of claims persists, it could signal labor market softening. She expects Powell to acknowledge inflation concerns and potential downside risks to the labor market. She also discusses the risks of "tarifflation" and the potential for a "soft patch" in growth, but does not see a recession on the horizon.