Stewart Glickman looks at the latest on U.S./Iran talks, which he says the market may be “sleeping on.” He sees “geopolitical fatigue” overall, especially around oil prices, with concerns around supply falling by the wayside over the past few years. He thinks we will avoid Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz as long as it doesn’t see a threat to the regime. A blockade would affect significantly more supply than cutting off Russian oil did. If prices spike to over $100/barrel, he sees recession unless prices lower quickly – and a blockade could see prices to around $150/barrel.