James St. Aubin thinks the unemployment rate could rise in the next few months, previewing his view of the August jobs report and the Fed’s potential rate cut decisions. He cites high recent grad unemployment, but says it is more “sector specific” than cyclical, meaning the Fed may have less control over the dynamic. “It doesn’t seem like there’s a strong case not to cut right now,” he adds, but thinks any cut will only be 25 basis points.