We are in a late cycle bull market, argues Tony Welch, noting historical “steeper declines” in midterm election years. However, he thinks recession risk is “starting to dissipate,” citing higher fiscal stimulus and easing Fed policy. In AI, “certain things looks bubbly,” but the technology is “here for real.” What’s most important for investors is “the iteration of the AI trade,” he adds, saying the “enablers” and hyperscalers are priced for perfection and we should turn to “adopters.”