Energy's cooldown in price action showed up in the June CPI, says Kevin Hincks. He walks investors through what's churning underneath the headline numbers and how it plays into the FOMC's inflation picture as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to speak Tuesday morning. However, crude oil is climbing again as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Kevin believes President Trump's rhetoric behind the volatility doesn't explain what's really happening behind the scenes. IBM Corp.'s (IBM) earnings also pose a big question mark for software.