“This is the first time in [the energy conflict] the U.S. has been a net exporter,” says Ali Meli, and explains why that keeps oil prices low even as Middle East tensions rise. However, the conflict will still affect the global oil markets, including potentially routing tankers away from the Strait of Hormuz. He says that if prices spiked up to over $100 as some fear, it would be extremely short-term and not an “equilibrium price.”