Thierry Wizman sees a “generally lackluster labor market,” reacting to the ADP report this morning and previewing tomorrow’s jobs report. He argues that the Fed will probably still cut rates this month, anticipating the unemployment rate ticking higher as hiring slows. “There’s an underlying tone of inflation” that hasn’t been reflected in CPI data yet, Thierry adds. He thinks the Fed will approach with caution, cutting only 25 basis points rather than the 50 some hope for. If tariffs are reversed, Thierry expects unease in the bond market.