Market Minute: Consumer Finance in Focus with INTU Earnings

Consumer finance is top of mind for many as a multitude of factors squeeze wallets, with tariffs one of the latest and greatest hits.

Another is the Trump administration’s resumption of student debt collection, after nearly 5 years of pause. The administration may garnish wages, tax returns, and Social Security payments for those in default. The Education Department reports that 42 million Americans have federal student loans, with 5.3 million in default and another 4 million in “late-stage delinquency.”

A number of financial and economic experts across the board are concerned that this could create a “spillover effect,” where garnished citizens no longer have the funds to pay auto loans, rent, credit card bills, and more. JPMorgan estimates that disposable personal income could be hit by $3.1B-$8.5B per month.

On top of this, Bankrate says, “credit card balances and interest rates remain near record highs, and Americans’ total consumer debt load is a record $18.2 trillion.” Mortgage and student loan balances also made new records in 1Q. One spark of good news: auto and credit card loan debt slightly decreased. However, average delinquency rates have hit 4.3%, according to the New York Fed – and this is before we see any impact from the student loan resumption.

Watch this area: the St. Louis Fed published research showing delinquency rates “substantially increased around the 1990-1991, 2001, and 2008-2009 recessions…these rates began rising several quarters before the recession started.”

For potential insight into this precarious field, Intuit (INTU) is reporting earnings after the bell. The consumer finance company has expanded in recent years from its flagship TurboTax software by buying Credit Karma, which offers “personalized recommendations” for credit cards, loans, and more. It also owns QuickBooks™, which is almost a must-have for the self-employed or small business.

INTU shares are up slightly this year – 5% – but still haven’t quite overcome last year’s fall (it is down 2% over the last 52 weeks). Zacks expects the company to report EPS of $10.89 (+10% year-over-year) and revenue of $7.54 billion (+12% year-over-year).

Services make up the majority of its revenue, with small business & self-employed customers leading. These are sectors that also tend to be hard-hit by financial downturns – but with corporate layoffs and a tough job market, maybe more Americans are deciding to try entrepreneurship.

The options market is currently pricing in a $27.6 move, or about 4%. Tune into the Schwab Network for live earnings breakdowns and more!