Market Minute: Holiday-Shortened Week Packed with Economic Data

Last week began relatively calm, with a lack of significant economic data and news headlines, allowing the market to digest the aggressive rally seen over the past four weeks. However, this consolidation quickly faded as concerns about the federal deficit pushed long-duration yields higher. Equity markets, now paying closer attention to recent movements in the bond market, were impacted.

To wrap up the week, President Trump made headlines by threatening Apple (AAPL) with a 25% tariff on U.S.-sold iPhones unless they are manufactured in America. He also threatened the E.U. with 50% tariffs, expressing frustration over the lack of progress in trade negotiations. This spurred volatility in equity markets, pushing the S&P 500 to test key support levels, including the 200-day and 20-day simple moving averages, as well as a crucial gap level around 5775.

This week, the market will refocus on economic data to assess any emerging tariff impacts on the U.S. economy. The action begins on Sunday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at Princeton University’s Baccalaureate Ceremony. Although it may seem unusual for monetary policy comments to come from such an event, the market will still be keenly focused on his speech.

On Tuesday, the trading week kicks off with Durable Goods Orders and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence data. Consumer Confidence has been weak in recent months due to tariff concerns, but this report will reflect any changes in sentiment following President Trump’s decision to ease some of the aggressive tariffs announced earlier in April.

Wednesday will bring an update from the Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index, which could signal a bottom in near-term sentiment as new orders and increased shipping demand have surged following the tariff delay announcement. Additionally, the Fed will release the minutes from its May meeting. While not much is expected from the report, as the blackout window is now closed and Fed members have been making media appearances to share their insights, it will still be closely monitored.

Thursday will be a busy day with revisions to Q1 GDP, which the market and administration hope will show a positive revision from the initial -0.3% advance number, which had reflected a contraction due to abnormal import activity ahead of Liberation Day.

Finally, Friday will close out the week with the PCE data, which the market is expecting to show a favorable print for the month, along with updates on Personal Spending and Income. Given President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on the E.U., set to go into effect on June 1, and the key economic data due this week, market volatility is expected to remain elevated, so it’s crucial to manage risk appropriately.