Market Minute: The Market Rests on Nvidia's Shoulders as Earnings Loom

Nvidia (NVDA), which was already up more about 197% year-to-date as of yesterday’s close, will report earnings in today’s postmarket with the Street looking for $0.75 EPS and $33.21B in revenue, according to Zacks. Yesterday’s announcement of negotiations regarding $285M of funding to establish a semiconductor manufacturing institute in North Carolina through the CHIPS and Science Act seemed to give shares a boost heading into earnings day, as NVDA logged a 4.8% gain. 

Nvidia is the colossus of the stock market, boasting a roughly $3.6 trillion market cap that represents about 7% of the S&P 500’s total market cap of about $48.2 trillion. So, to borrow another image from Classical Greece, perhaps Nvidia is more like Atlas, the titan on whose shoulders the world rests; because if this giant stumbles, the effect could ripple through the broader market. 

Monday’s trading session actually looked like it could have been the start of a dangerous move for the bulls, as price closed below the lower level of an upward channel that begins with the lows from Sept. 6, as well as the 21-day Exponential Moving Average. These were potential early warning signs of trend change, but yesterday’s news gave shares a boost and they recaptured that 21-EMA quickly, which came in near 142. Momentum has been slowing in recent weeks as the market heads into earnings, which is not uncommon whenever a known event risk situation is approaching. 

If price breaks lower, the area near 144.50 represents the old highs from late October, and also roughly lines up with the previously mentioned trendline. The 21-EMA is just below, and then the 140 level represents the old highs from June. Beyond that, 130 represents an interesting support confluence in the old highs from late August, the 63-EMA, and the 50-SMA. To the upside, the old highs of 149.77 are the clear point to beat. But after that, perhaps the upper boundary of the channel near 160 could be a point to watch.