Stocks Volatile into Key Economic Data and Earnings

U.S. stocks staged a massive rebound on Friday but are a bit lower in premarket trading on Monday. The S&P 500 (SPX) was up 1.97% on Friday while the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) rose 2.15%. The Dow Industrials Index ($DJI) was up 1206 points or 2.47% on Friday, a new record high above $50K, while the small-cap Russel 2000 (RUT) jumped 3.6%. 

Even with Friday’s pop, the S&P 500 posted a 0.1% decline for the week, while the NDX fell 1.9% on the week. The 30-stock Dow rose 2.5% last week to all-time highs while the small-Cap RUT was up 2.2%. The beaten down tech sector gave a boost to the overall market, and Consumer Staples, Industrials and Materials set record highs last week as investors broadened out the bullishness in equities. 

Volatility was expanding last week but came in hard on the stock rally on Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallied to over two-month highs on Thursday above the 23 level before sliding sharply to close out the week.  

Investor focus turns to key economic data this week. On Wednesday, investors will be watching for the delayed January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The release was initially scheduled for last Friday but was postponed due to the partial government shutdown. ADP reported last week that private payrolls increased by a mere 22,000 in January, well below expectations. 

Markets anticipate the closely watched jobs report will show a gain of around 60,000 in January with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.4%. The January Consumer Price Index reading, which was also delayed by the shutdown, is due out Friday. The consensus is looking for a 2.5% annual rate on both headline and core readings with month-over-month expected to be up 0.3%.

Earnings season will also be in focus this week with nearly 15% of the S&P 500 reporting quarterly results. Results are due from Coca-Cola (KO), CVS Health (CVS), Cloudflare (NET) and Spotify (SPOT) on Tuesday and McDonald’s (MCD), Shopify (SHOP), Applovin (APP) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) report Wednesday. Thursday has Hyatt (H), Airbnb (ABNB), Applied Materials (AMAT), Coinbase (COIN) and Expedia (EXPE) reporting. So far, the beat rate for earnings this quarter is over 75%, according to FactSet. 

With the benchmark S&P 500 only 1% off its record high and the Dow Index at all-time highs, earnings and data will need to support the expanding valuations for Friday’s rally to continue. Friday’s relief rally in tech was a welcome sign for stocks and may provide a positive boost for the major indices this week.  

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