Week in Review: Fund Flows Show Optimism Despite 60% Fed Rate Hike Odds

[Editor’s note: Inflow data in the August 28 Market Minute was corrected online to reflect the week ended July 24.]

In the week that was, Nvidia (NVDA) and tech positivity sustained market gains despite losses on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke and September interest rate-hike odds nearly doubled.

After Warsh spoke, the CME Group FedWatch tool put the probability near 60% that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could raise rates Sept. 16-17, which was a spike from the 35% chance indicated pre-market Friday.

For the week, indexes were mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) up 0.5%, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) up about 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) rose 0.4%. Conversely, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 2.3%, and the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) slid 1.5%.

Bank of America's weekly fund flow report released Friday for the period Aug. 20-26, notes "soaring futures market volumes driven by 24/7 agentic trading" even as "risk indices [are] grinding higher without leadership." Gold and cryptocurrencies saw their biggest weekly inflows since October 2025, according to the BofA analysis of EPFR data. Weekly flow highlights: $17.7 billion to bonds, $9.2 billion to stocks, $9.2 billion to cash, $7.3 billion to gold, and $3.2 billion to crypto, the report notes.

Oil prices fell nearly 4% for the week, to roughly $83.50 per barrel. Energy market news was dwarfed by other headlines, even as Venezuela, with its massive, untapped oil reserves and U.S.-friendly regime, considers an OPEC exit, according to a Wednesday Bloomberg report. Venezuela was among the five founding members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in September 1960, along with Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile on Friday, Iran's foreign ministry said that the "crushing economic operation" against Iran, announced by President Donald Trump 10 days ago, is "illegal and reprehensible." See Fed Takes Center Stage After NVDA Earnings, Venezuela Considers Leaving OPEC

Here are three topics and related interviews that will help shed light on where markets have been this past week and where they may be headed:

What Did Warsh Speech Tell Us About Higher Rates?

Cooper Howard, Director of Fixed Income Research and Strategy with the Schwab Center for Financial Research, says Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone Friday means investors and traders need to focus on incoming inflation data. Jim Ferraioli, Director of Crypto Research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, talks about the "rebirth of the debasement trade" and how the tone of Warsh's press conference shapes Bitcoin and gold prices. See Warsh's "Hawkish" Jackson Hole Speech & Impacts on Bitcoin's Bull Run

Orphe Divounguy, Chief Economist and Founder of the Quantitative Research Group, thinks the FOMC is squarely focused on inflation. He talks about AI and technology, and how fast-moving innovation is actually impacting the U.S. economy with a slowing housing market and other factors. See Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech: Betting on AI to Aid Labor, Inflation Still Critical

• For Federal Reserve and interest rate insights, see the latest on Fed activity from Schwab Network.

Are Value Stocks Staging a Comeback? 

Listen to Molly Pieroni, a partner and president at Yacktman Asset Management, define value in two stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL) and U-Haul Holding (UHAL). See GOOGL and UHAL: Two Sides of Value Coin Seen by Molly Pieroni

Watch Sam Miller, Executive Vice President of Investment Strategy at Signature Estate & Investment Advisors, discuss how value stock gains are a sign of market health, especially in healthcare and industrials. He says many other companies need to quantify AI growth. See Value Stocks Gain Ground as Sector Rotation Adds Market Muscle

What Did Nvidia Earnings Signal for the AI Trade?

Schwab Networks' Kevin Hincks highlights the biggest takeaways from the Nvidia report, noting that a sticking point in Nvidia's report remains AI memory prices. See NVDA Blowout Quarter Backs AI Trade Strength, Memory Remains Lasting Headwind

Schwab Networks' Tom White discusses the Nvidia earnings beat and commentary from CEO Jensen Huang that the AI infrastructure buildout is "at full steam." He also discusses Salesforce (CRM) earnings and its Anthropic partnership. See AI Buildout 'at Full Steam:' NVDA Earnings Lift Futures, CRM Integrating Claude

• For more technology insights including news on tech earnings, see the latest on  technology shaping markets from Schwab Network.
• For artificial intelligence insights, see the latest on A.I. and its integration within business from Schwab Network.

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Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.