“I would have been surprised” about the Fed’s decision a few weeks ago, says Wayne Kaufman, but he noticed the spread between the 2-year yield and the Fed Funds Futures rate had widened, which he says usually precedes bigger rate cuts. He adds that if the Fed had cut 25-basis points in July, they could have only moved another 25-basis points at this latest meeting, and the market might not have been so shocked.