Matt Maley thinks we could see a “sudden decline” in stocks if the market wakes up to the U.S./Iran war, like how stocks dropped with Covid-19. But it’s not all geopolitics: stresses from AI capex and credit markets continue, meaning that a “rebound may not last all that long.” He looks at energy and defense, though he says he wouldn’t chase the former after the rapid run up. Matt argues that if tech starts to sell off, it will drag down equity markets as a whole and investors will move towards cash.