"I don't think the Fed should be hiking" in September, says Ted Thatcher on interest rates, arguing that a hike won't shape the inflation picture. A resolution or sharp cooldown in the U.S.-Iran war is what he believes will offer true relief. Ted explains why crude oil prices remain the most important gauge for inflation and ways oil serve as an unsung beneficiary to the AI trade. He offers his outlook for the rest of the year and discusses why the S&P 500 (SPX) would be well above 8,000 if not for the war.